Needless to say, the war in the Middle East is one of these fast-moving environments, and even the best geopolitical analysts are struggling to predict how it could end. For financial markets, the branching point is simple and more brutal: does this end in days, or does it become a forever war that involves an entire region? Crucial factors here are whether, how and when there could be a regime change in Iran; the duration and intensity of US involvement; and the length and severity of any disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In shaping our view, we are working with a base case scenario that assumes ... (full story)