Gold Analysis: Gold Continues to See Noisy Action

Overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while the number of Districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from four in the prior period to five in the current period. Although consumer spending increased slightly on balance, two Districts reported ongoing declines, and many noted that sales were dampened by economic uncertainty, increased price sensitivity, and lower-income consumers pulling back on spending. Districts impacted by winter storms said that retail traffic generally slowed, and one District said immigration enforcement activity negatively affected customer demand in urban areas. Auto sales were mostly down for Districts that reported on them, with many citing continuing affordability issues. Manufacturing activity improved overall since the previous reporting period, with eight Districts reporting varying degrees of growth and two reporting declines. Manufacturing contacts in many Districts reported increases in new orders, and several cited boosts in demand from data centers and, relatedly, energy infrastructure. Transportation activity was mixed across Districts that reported on it, with three reporting contractions and two reporting modest growth. Overall, financial services activity was reported as stable to up, with commercial lending being the primary area of strength. For most Districts that reported on residential real estate and construction, sales and activity decreased slightly, with low inventories and affordability remaining key issues. Nonresidential construction activity was mixed across reporting Districts but increased slightly on net. Among reporting Districts, agricultural conditions were mostly flat, and energy activity grew modestly on balance. Overall, economic expectations were optimi FED BEIGE BOOK: WAGES ROSE AT A MODEST TO MODERATE PACE IN MOST DISTRICTS AS FIRMS COMPETED FOR WORKERS. FED BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GREW SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY IN 7 OF 12 DISTRICTS, WHILE 5 DISTRICTS REPORTED FLAT OR DECLINING CONDITIONS. FED BEIGE BOOK: MOST DISTRICTS EXPECT SLIGHT TO MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE COMING MONTHS. FED BEIGE BOOK: PRICES ROSE MODERATELY IN RECENT WEEKS, WITH 8 DISTRICTS REPORTING MODERATE INCREASES AND 4 REPORTING SLIGHT OR MODEST GAINS.

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