Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s February 23 speech on “Labor Market Data: Signal or Noise?” makes for good reading. Waller is a top economist and among the most influential members of the FOMC. In the speech he explains his dissent in January and how he interprets the incoming data. It is therefore crucial for understanding the likely direction of Fed policy. Waller provides a clear summary of the January FOMC decision. The Committee kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% after three 0.25% cuts since September. It did so because members were concerned about still elevated inflation, data gaps related to the government ... (full story)