US Senate passes funding deal; House vote expected early next week

Good morning, and thank you for the invitation to join you today.1 It is a pleasure to be with you for the Southwestern Graduate School of Banking's 161st Assembly for Bank Directors. Before we get started on the fireside chat, since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its January meeting earlier this week, I think it would be helpful to summarize my views on the recent policy decision. I will then offer some remarks on the economy and also share my perspective on the outlook for monetary policy. As we enter 2026, the economy has continued to grow, and I see inflation moving closer to our goal. But beneath the surface, the labor market is fragile. I will provide some perspective on why I think that fragility poses the greater risk and what that means for the path of policy. FED’S BOWMAN: RATE HOLD WAS A CLOSE CALL Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said holding rates steady was not an easy decision and reflected a need for more data. She said policy remains moderately restrictive, but after 75 basis points of cuts last year, the Fed can afford to wait.…

For many years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, under WEAK and STUPID people, has been FAILING American Businesses, Policymakers, and Families by releasing VERY inaccurate numbers. That is why I FIRED the former Commissioner, and am pleased to nominate the very talented Brett Matsumoto as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Brett was a Supervisory Research Economist for the BLS, but is now serving as a Senior Economist on the Trump Council of Economic Advisers, like he did in my First Term. I am confident that Brett has the expertise to QUICKLY fix the long history of issues at the BLS on behalf of the American People. Brett Matsumoto is a Brilliant, Reputable, and Trusted Economist who will restore GREATNESS to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Congratulations Brett!

Chinese manufacturing activity contracted in January, according to a report by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday. ...