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Five ways the UK economy could positively surprise us in 2026
The UK grew faster than expected in November, which begs the question: are we being too gloomy about the year ahead? Our view – shared by most UK economists – is that 2026 is going to see the economy grow more slowly than in 2025. We expect 0.9% growth this year, below the 1.4% projected for 2025. That’s slightly below consensus. So how could we be pleasantly surprised? Lower interest rates One of our main calls for 2026 is that the UK will no longer look like an outlier on inflation. Food inflation, which is highest in Western Europe, should come down. Services inflation will come dramatically lower from ... (full story)