Spot prices for lithium have experienced significant volatility to begin 2026, with Scotiabank analysts characterizing the recent surge as disconnected from underlying market fundamentals. Domestic Chinese lithium carbonate prices have risen 34% year-to-date, while spodumene prices have increased by 46%. The rapid rise has seen lithium carbonate move from approximately $18,000 per metric tonne to $23,000 per metric tonne in a single week. Futures markets have reacted similarly, trading at even higher premiums. {chart} Scotiabank’s analysis suggests this rally is not currently driven by end-user EV demand, but rather ... (full story)