A new account on Polymarket placed a $40,000 bet that the US will strike Iran by the end of January 14, but no attack occurred, going against market expectations that the probability of a strike on that date is low. The Pentagon is reportedly considering military options against Iran, with preparations underway for a possible intervention in the coming hours or days. Iran has closed its airspace to all commercial traffic, but no strike took place on the predicted date. Most bettors on Polymarket expected any strike to happen later rather than immediately. Following the 14th, Polymarket data shows the probability of a ... (full story)