In April last year, the global growth outlook looked grim -the US led trade war was expected to hit major economies hard. Since that time, growth expectations have been steadily upgraded (chart 1). Much of the focus has been on the stronger US economy, fuelled by the AI investment boom. Less has been said about the resilience of the Chinese economy. Arguably, China faced even more headwinds than the US in 2025. It was the key target of President Trump’s new tariff policies. At the same time, China’s domestic economy continued to be weighed down by structural challenges, including its shrinking and rapidly ageing ... (full story)