The CPI report covering the final month of 2025 generally was encouraging. Core CPI in December rose 12 bps less than our forecast, largely on the back of a smaller-than-expected bounce back in core goods inflation after November's unusually soft, shutdown-delayed report. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI held steady at 2.6%, an improvement from the 3.1% reading in August and the 3.2% pace seen in December 2024. A quirk related to shelter inflation is depressing the year-over-year CPI readings by a tenth or so. Furthermore, we are not out of the woods yet on the tariff front, as Q1 seasonality related to ... (full story)