The December CPI report has provided another soft inflation print, with headline prices rising 0.3% month-on-month as the consensus forecast, while core inflation rose only 0.2% versus the 0.3% consensus prediction. We thought there was a strong chance of an even higher print of 0.4%, in large part due to timing issues related to the government shutdown that heightened the influence of price discounting later in November 2025 relative to a 'normal' November 2024. We thought this would have led to a bigger seasonally adjusted bounce for December price levels. The key takeaway is that goods prices were very benign, ... (full story)