In my more than two-decade history of putting together thoughts for the coming quarter, never have I struggled more than I have this quarter with putting together some kind of “base case” for how the economy and markets will shape up in the quarter ahead and beyond. The problem in assembling a view feels as much a problem of timing anticipated developments that lie ahead rather than the actual outcomes. For a trader, though, that is simply the difference between being right or wrong. Alas, finding myself up against the deadline for this quarter’s musings on what lies ahead, I have found inspiration from a network of ... (full story)