Good evening, everyone, and happy new year to all. I always appreciate the opportunity to speak here at the Council on Foreign Relations.1 I’m looking forward to a robust discussion this evening. You may have read that the words of the year for 2025 were phrases like “rage-bait,” “AI slop,” and, of course, “6-7.” I’d add a word of my own. In December, I gave a speech titled “Resilience.”2 I said then that despite all the uncertainty posed by trade policy and geopolitical events, the U.S. and global economies showed considerable resilience, continued to grow, and were poised to gain steam in 2026. I’d like to pick up ... (full story)