For the US, the road ahead is one of continued moderate growth. But with unusually wide tails, the US expansion will remain distinctly K-shaped as policy choices on tariffs, immigration and artificial intelligence investment amplify divergences across households, sectors and asset classes. In the US, President Donald Trump’s policy mix has reshaped the present macro backdrop. Aggressive tariff hikes are generating sizeable revenue and, until recently, have been largely absorbed by retailers. As 2026 begins, an increasing share of these costs should shift to consumers, nudging inflation higher and eroding real ... (full story)