There’s a long-running joke about forecasting: it’s hard to tell who does it worse, weather forecasters or market strategists. Both have improved over the years, but the gap between predictions and reality persists. When it comes to markets, FactSet data shows that from 2005 to 2024, analysts’ start-of-year forecasts for the S&P 500 missed the actual year-end level by an average of about 5.9%. In slightly more than half of those years, analysts were too optimistic; in the rest, the market ended up outperforming expectations. As for the last year, the S&P 500 blew past the consensus forecast of 6,678, ... (full story)