China’s Silver Export Controls Threaten the AI and Solar Boom

Thank you for having me today.1 It’s great to be with all of you and I am honored to join my fellow panelists. January is a good time to take stock and to think about what lies ahead. I’d like to provide an overview of how I see economic developments in the U.S. and some of the themes that I think will be important for monetary policy this year. Before I get into my remarks, please note that I am speaking just for myself and these are my views and not necessarily those of my Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) colleagues. Let me start with inflation. If I had to pick a theme for inflation for 2026 it would be “cautious optimism.” We recently received inflation data for November of last year, but the lack of data collection during the government shutdown complicates the interpretation of those data, so I am going to focus on data through September of 2025. Breaking | Fed Chair Paulson emphasizes that the labor market is a more reliable indicator than GDP data. $JPM $BAC Philly Fed's Paulson sees room for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation eases Just in | Fed's Paulson predicts completion of tariff price adjustments within the next six months.