China Still Dominates Critical Mineral Refining in 2030

This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on December 5, 2025. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Nicolas Vincent, Rhys Mendes and Michelle Alexopoulos. Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing global economic developments since the October Monetary Policy Report. Members agreed that the global economy was showing continued resilience in the face of US protectionism. In the United States, the absence of official data during the government shutdown clouded the picture. Available information suggested that strong consumer spending and investment in artificial intelligence had continued to support growth. Unemployment was relatively stable, although layoffs in the private sector had been increasing. Members discussed whether early indications of retail sales for Black Friday suggested US consumption could be boosted by more than usual for the holiday period. Rising equity prices was likely providing some support for consumer spending by wealthier households. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the United States had ticked up slightly in September, likely due to some pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices. Members noted that if the pass-through were to expand, there could be an upside risk to US inflation. In the euro area, growth now appeared stronger than anticipated in the October Report. The strength came largely from a boost in demand for services. Going forward, a surge in Chinese exports to the region could compete with local manufacturing and weigh on growth but increases in defence spending could offset these pressures. Growth in China was weighed down by weakness in ho BOC OFFICIALS AGREED IT'S UNCLEAR WHAT NEXT RATE MOVE WILL BE BOC OFFICIALS AGREED CANADIAN ECONOMY IS IN EXCESS SUPPLY BoC Governing Council Felt It Was Hard To Predict Whether Next Move Would Be A Hike Or A Cut - Agreed To Remain Cautious In Interpreting Data Given Recent Volatility - Prepared To Respond In Case Of A Major New Shock, Or Data Showing Economy And Inflation Diverting Materially…

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