November’s consumer price inflation report was remarkably soft given the backdrop of tariffs and concerns over insurance costs. Remember we don't get month-on-month data due to no survey being conducted in October because of the government shutdown, but we have year-on-year prints and for headline that came in at 2.7% versus 3% in September and a 3.1% consensus prediction, while core (ex food and energy) inflation was just 2.6% versus September’s 3% outcome and a consensus projection of 3%. That 2.6% outcome was 0.2pp below even the lowest forecast submitted to Bloomberg in their consensus survey. We had assumed we ... (full story)