The FOMC meeting will be the headline risk event. A 25bp cut is fully priced and viewed as a done deal, but the real debate centres on what a “hawkish cut” looks like and whether the statement and Powell’s press conference aligns to that well-subscribed outcome. Understanding exactly what constitutes a 'hawkish cut' is difficult to quantify given the Fed are still yet to receive the upcoming November NFP (16 Dec) and CPI (18 Dec) prints, and we also consider the composition of the Fed in 2026, a factor which remains a major grey area - and specifically around how closely aligned the future governors and regional ... (full story)