In 2025, President Trump rolled out an impressive amount of tariffs that has given the economy a stagflationary shock. At the same time, a boom in artificial intelligence (AI) has provided a positive demand shock that helped sustain economic momentum. These factors, trade policy and AI, are likely to continue to play a major role in 2026. Tariffs are still working their way through the economy and AI investment growth may have peaked. Both developments could weaken the economy and there are even risks of collapsing asset bubbles. However, the AI revolution should eventually also cause a positive supply shock through ... (full story)