China's overcapacity crackdown reaches copper, but market impact unlikely

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 10-11 September 2025, financial markets had once again shown resilience to shocks. The risk appetite of investors in the euro area stood close to its highest level since the onset of the global financial crisis, amid persistently low volatility across asset classes. The prevailing positive risk sentiment had been underpinned by the macroeconomic outlook in both the euro area and the United States, with both economies continuing to show greater than expected resilience to the ongoing trade conflict and geopolitical headwinds. Market indicators of expectations for euro area growth continued to suggest a robust economic expansion. Growth expectations for 2025 had been revised up and stood well above their level prior to the initial announcement of higher US tariffs. Growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 were close to pre-tariff expectations and were near to the level of potential growth. Market indicators of medium-term inflation expectations were close to 2%. The one-year inflation-linked swap (ILS) rate two years ahead in the euro area had hovered around 1.85% since August, corresponding to around 1.95% when including tobacco, despite a decline in crude oil prices. US inflation compensation, as measured by the one-year ILS rate two years ahead, had fallen below 2.4%, down from 2.5% in late August. This had reinforced investor confidence that the US Federal Reserve System would continue to lower interest rates, which had been another key factor supporting global risk appetite. ECB ACCOUNTS: THERE CONTINUED TO BE A HIGH OPTION VALUE TO WAITING FOR MORE INFORMATION ECB ACCOUNTS: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL’S ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLATION OUTLOOK WAS BROADLY UNCHANGED