During my trip to the US in early November, I spoke with a range of economists about the outlook for Fed policy. Most expected the FOMC to cut rates over the coming year, but what stood out was the dispersion in their views. It was far wider than the usual debate about “two or three cuts” that tends to dominate market commentary. I just looked at the CME FOMC Calculator, which extracts from market prices the probabilities investors assign to policy decisions over the next eighteen months. These probabilities allow two paths to be shown. The first is the most likely sequence of interest rate decisions, presented as a ... (full story)