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Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bull Pennant Tightens – $4,245 Breakout Key
Gold pushed to a six-day high of $4,159 on Tuesday, producing the first full range above the 10-day average ($4,105) in eight sessions with a low at $4,110. The move occurred within a developing bull pennant (small triangle) consolidation at the upper end of the recent advance, resulting in muted follow-through and a narrow range day in progress. The daily high respected the long-term rising top channel line (blue) that has repeatedly capped moves. Just overhead, a separate downtrend line intersects a more recent top channel line (black), creating a tight resistance band that further defines the upper pennant ... (full story)
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From rbnz.govt.nz|Nov 25, 2025|2 commentsAnnual consumers price inflation increased to 3 percent in the September quarter. However, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to fall to around 2 percent by mid-2026. Economic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking up. Lower interest rates are encouraging household spending, and the labour market is stabilising. The exchange rate has fallen, supporting exporters’ incomes. Global economic growth has benefited from strong AI-related investment but is expected to slow in 2026 as trade barriers weigh on activity. Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced. Greater caution on the part of households and businesses could slow the pace of New Zealand’s economic recovery. Alternatively, the recovery could be faster and stronger than expected if domestic demand proves more responsive to lower interest rates. The Committee voted to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. Future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolve. RBNZ: LOWER INTEREST RATES ARE ENCOURAGING HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, AND THE LABOUR MARKET IS STABILISING RBNZ SEES OFFICIAL CASH RATE AT 2.25% IN MARCH 2026 (PVS 2.55%) Looks like a hawkish cut RBNZ: Inflation likely to fall to near 2% by mid-2026, supported by spare economic capacity. RBNZ minutes show the committee voted 5-1 to cut the OCR by 25 bps to 2.25%. RBNZ: After a weak mid-2025, the economy is beginning to gain momentum.
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- Nov 25, 2025 5:45pm Posted byTechnical Analysis6,864
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