Although we are just days away from Black Friday when holiday sales fully kick into gear, we are just now getting September retail sales data due to the government shutdown. The 0.2% headline increase for the month was underwhelming, and a dip in control group sales puts year-end spending on shaky footing. Still, our holiday sales forecast remains intact even if we are now closer to the lower end of our forecast range. The fog continues to lift on the contours of autumn economic growth as the various governmental statistical agencies release overdue data that had been held up by the shutdown. Today, a somewhat ... (full story)