It is anticipated that the Chancellor will increase her fiscal headroom from £9.9 billion to approximately £15 billion. Is this enough, and what are the risks around headroom of that size? There were serious concerns that the buffer of £9.9 billion announced in March was always going to prove too small, so raising it in the November Budget is a step in the right direction. However, we believe that an increase to £15 billion still runs the risk that the Chancellor misses the fiscal stability rule requiring current income and spending to be in balance by 2029-30. To understand why this is the case, the average ... (full story)