September’s report on the Employment Situation was delayed by 48 days because of the government shutdown. Although the data were dated, they were still useful in gauging the labor market’s autumnal trajectory. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119k, which was stronger than expected, but there were 33k worth of net downward revisions. August’s print is now -4k, marking the second negative figure over the past four months. (Note: repeated negative employment prints are historically the stuff of recessions.) The three-month trend is now +62k, which continues to register the weakest results since the start of the pandemic ... (full story)