We were in the camp that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should have reduced interest rates during the first half of the year, taking advantage of the underlying disinflationary path during that period. Furthermore, we think the disinflationary path is still in motion today and will continue during the next several quarters, helped by a continuous slowdown in shelter prices. However, the prospects for further rate cuts past December does not look that promising, especially if the US economy starts to strengthen during the first half of the year, as we expect, and/or there is any truth to the tariff refund President Donald ... (full story)