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China macro: Can the forthcoming 5-year plan revive domestic demand?
China’s growth momentum is weak as consumer confidence is low and the widespread overcapacity limits room for new fixed asset investment. The export boom is probably also coming to an end. Could the forthcoming 5-year plan make things better? • Macro outlook: Official GDP numbers overstate real growth although the sectoral differences are significant. Almost anything related to consumption and housing remains weak and very recently also the fixed asset investment growth has turned negative due to policy tightening. The so-far robust export growth is expected to slow down as well and it is hard to predict a rapid ... (full story)
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