The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes, an AI-driven technology surge, and modestly restrictive monetary policy. At the same time, inflation, subtracting the impact of tariffs on goods prices, has gradually declined, although it remains elevated. This is all good news and reflects the economy’s underlying strength and our ongoing progress in restoring price stability. But the balance of risks has clearly shifted, as the labor market has rapidly softened and inflation has risen less than ... (full story)