The current market environment has been complicated by a partial U.S. government shutdown that has disrupted the normal flow of economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In this information vacuum, market participants are placing heightened emphasis on the ADP non-farm payroll report as a proxy for gauging labor market conditions and, by extension, the Federal Reserve's likely policy trajectory at its December meeting. Recent shifts in market expectations have been notable. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a December rate cut has fallen sharply to 67.3%, down from 94.4% before last ... (full story)