Rates Spark: Volatility calms—we’ll take it

Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. More recently, however, inflation has picked up. Trimmed mean inflation was 1.0 per cent in the September quarter and 3.0 per cent over the year, up from 2.7 per cent over the year in the June quarter. This was materially higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. Headline inflation rose sharply to 3.2 per cent over the year in the September quarter, a large part of which was expected given the cessation of electricity rebates in a number of states. The Board’s judgement is that some of the increase in underlying inflation in the September quarter was due to temporary factors. The central forecast in the November Statement on Monetary Policy, which is based on a technical assumption of one more rate cut in 2026, has underlying inflation rising above 3 per cent in coming quarters before settling at 2.6 per cent in 2027. RBA: Central forecast November statement anticipates underlying inflation rising above 3 per cent in coming quarters before settling at 2.6 per cent in 2027. RBA: Various indicators suggest that labor market conditions remain tight Australian GDP expected to remain near 2% annually over the next three years, says RBA.