In the absence of hard data during the government shutdown, we can turn to purchasing managers to put a finger on the pulse of the underlying dynamics impacting businesses in the current environment. As a reminder the shutdown began on October 1, and the manufacturing ISM was released this morning and the service sector ISM report is due out on Wednesday—both measure economic activity during the month of October. The ISM manufacturing index slipped 0.4 points to 48.7 and has now been consistent with contraction for eight straight months (chart).The manufacturing sector remains under pressure with demand still weak, ... (full story)