Nov 5th will be a key date for markets: the Supreme Court will start hearing arguments on Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. And while markets don’t seem particularly focused on this event, I believe it’s crucial to be prepared for it. The pie chart above shows why the Supreme Court ruling will be crucial. If the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional, around 55% of the US tariff income would be wiped out from the 2026 budget and US companies would be eligible for a refund for the 2025 tariffs paid under the IEEPA regime. In numbers, we are talking about a $150-200bn annualized in tariff income lost for the ... (full story)