With hard data confirming eurozone growth is on a recovery trajectory, we think 10-year euro swap rates should start considering a push higher. Additionally, inflation came in hotter, bringing the 10-year inflation swap a tick closer to the 2% target again. We acknowledge that the upside potential for euro rates remains limited this year, and we target a 10-year rate of some 10 basis points above the current 2.65%. With growth on track to improve further in 2026, that’s when we aim for the 10Y to look at 3% as the new equilibrium. For the front end, the wiggle room is much more limited as the ECB’s mantra of being ... (full story)