This time, Germany managed to pull off a subtle upside data surprise, but markets remain sceptical about the long-term growth outlook. The IFO business survey on expectations increased to the highest level in over three years, suggesting some sparks of optimism amongst German businesses. On the other hand, we doubt this reading marks a turning point. GDP numbers on Thursday may well confirm a technical recession in Germany. From a rates perspective, the upside potential of a more robust growth outlook would be significant. If we look at 5Y5Y forwards as a measure of market positioning for long-term growth, we have ... (full story)