Trump puts Russia on notice over Ukraine as two leaders prepare to meet

Since our last meeting in April, global economic activity has remained subdued but steady, despite ongoing trade policy headwinds. This resilience partly reflected a frontloading of demand in anticipation of tariffs, which temporarily boosted activity but is unlikely to be sustained. As this effect fades, global growth dynamics are expected to soften further. A predictable and open international economic order remains essential to sustain global trade, investment and shared prosperity. While recent preliminary trade agreements have reduced uncertainty, it remains elevated and may weigh on investment. The full impact of the evolving policy environment will only become clearer over time, but early signs are already visible in the reconfiguration of global trade flows. Global headline inflation is projected to moderate gradually, though the outlook is expected to diverge across countries, reflecting the varying impact of the volatile global policy environment, especially in relation to trade and fiscal policies and geopolitical tensions. In this environment, while monetary policy stances are set to become more divergent, it is imperative that central banks have the independence to fully deliver on their mandates. ECB'S LAGARDE SAYS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SUBDUED BUT STEADY ECB's Lagarde: The outlook for euro area inflation remains uncertain, range of has narrowed. ECB's President Lagarde: Liquidity vulnerabilities remain elevated.