The October NY Empire State Manufacturing Index prints on Wednesday, 15 Oct 2025 at 13:30 UK time. The market’s first regional read on current-month factory activity. With September’s headline at −8.7, the street is looking for a rebound (Consensus −1.8; Street Forecast −5). Our read leans more cautious: we call −5.5 (range −10 to 0), reflecting still-soft demand and only tentative signs of stabilization. This note frames Our Call vs. Consensus, what to watch inside the report (new orders, shipments, prices, employment, and 6-month expectations), and the likely cross-asset reaction path in USTs, the USD, and ... (full story)