Whilst volatility has fallen significantly, we do think the risk is tilted towards lower 2Y rates. First, growth remains weak and survey data such as the ZEW indices expected on Tuesday underline the fragile recovery path of the eurozone. Secondly, lower oil prices add to the disinflationary risks, together with our view that the euro should still strengthen going forward. And if these disinflationary factors are brought about by external factors, like worsening growth numbers for the US and China, then this would also weigh down the eurozone economic outlook. Lastly, we have plenty of known unknowns – lurking ... (full story)