China’s customs agency just published September trade data, which once again paint a remarkably resilient picture for exports in the face of US tariffs. The fall in China’s exports to the US is essentially completely offset by rising exports to the rest of the world. These data feed the narrative that China has the upper hand in the trade war with the US, but that’s deceptive. Margins of China’s exporters are likely getting hit hard, as they’re making steep discounts to generate demand in new markets or facing higher transportation costs for transshipment to the US. Either way, China’s export sector is likely ... (full story)