You knew something had to shatter the calm. The market had become too complacent, making money was too easy lately. It has been 27 trading weeks since the last big tariff announcement – Trump’s “liberation day” when he announced reciprocal tariffs on the entire world last April – and in 17 of those weeks, the S&P 500 traded higher, a 63% win rate. Since the beginning of September there have been 28 trading days and 17 of them were up (61%) with one run of 7 out of 10 days higher. For perspective, according to Crestmont Research, since 1951 53.7% of trading days were up versus 46.3% down. In the secular bear ... (full story)