Week two into the federal government shutdown and the economic fog is thickening just as the Fed contemplates another quarter-point rate cut on October 29. We still await almost all the major economic indicators for September (employment, inflation, retail sales, and industrial production) that would help get a read on how the third quarter was likely to shape up. The data from July and August weren’t much help in reading the economy’s tea leaves, revealing surprising resilience in consumer and business spending. Record-high stock prices and AI investment mania allowed high-income consumers and most investors to look ... (full story)