Fed's Kashkari: Data sending some stagflation signals

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and longer-term horizons and were unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Despite a small rebound in the expected job finding rate, labor market expectations continued to deteriorate with consumers reporting lower expected earnings growth, greater likelihoods of losing jobs, and a higher likelihood of a rise in overall unemployment. The survey was fielded from September 1 through September 30, 2025. The main findings from the September 2025 Survey are: *NY FED: MORE HOUSEHOLDS REPORT BEING BETTER OFF THAN YEAR AGO *NY FED: HOUSEHOLDS' OUTLOOK FOR LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES NY FED: SEPTEMBER YEAR-AHEAD EXPECTED FOOD PRICE RISE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2023 *NY FED: 1Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3.4% VS 3.2% *NY FED: 5Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3% VS 2.9% *NY FED: 3Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED AT 3%

TRUMP: WILL TALK ABOUT LOWERING TARIFFS ON CANADIAN SECTORS TRUMP: WE HAVE MADE COMPROMISES TO CANADA EVEN ON STEEL TRUMP: I THINK CANADA WILL BE VERY HAPPY ON TARIFFS

“The dollar may be our currency, but it’s your problem.” When John Connally, President Nixon’s Treasury Secretary, spoke these words in the 1970s, he was describing a world dominated by the dollar, where other countries had little choice but to bear the consequences of US policies. Half a century later, these words still resonate. Earlier this year, when turbulence was emanating from the United States, investors turned to the euro as a safe haven. This was of course a sign of confidence in Europe. But we also felt the costs, in the form of upward pressure on the exchange rate. Europe is more open than any other major economy. Our exports reached nearly €4 trillion last year. But this openness also makes us more exposed in a world where trade and geopolitics are increasingly intertwined, and where spillovers are often unavoidable. In this context, the international role of the euro can no longer remain a secondary question. It is central to Europe’s ability to turn the euro from a safe-haven currency into a truly g ECB PRESIDENT CHRISTINE LAGARDE DOES NOT ADDRESS CURRENT MONETARY POLICY IN PREPARED REMARKS TO BUSINESS FRANCE EVENT #ecb #europeancentralbank #christinelagarde