The September ISM Services PMI report (Fri, 03 Oct 2025; 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET) lands into a mixed macro backdrop: activity remains expansionary but momentum has cooled, hiring signals have softened, and price pressures in services are still sticky. Against that context, our base case is for the headline to dip modestly to 51.4 (vs 51.7 consensus; 51.0 street). We expect Business Activity/New Orders to ease but stay in expansion, Employment to remain in mild contraction (47 – 48), and Prices Paid to hold elevated (67 – 69). This reflects the combination of weaker private sector hiring and regional services prints, ... (full story)