Prediction markets see US government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks | Metals Mine

  • Prediction markets see US government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

    From cnbc.com

    Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October. On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled. On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won’t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. ... (full story)

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    US Manufacturing PMI at 49.1%; September 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report

    From prnewswire.com|Oct 1, 2025|16 comments

    Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted in September following one month of growth; the figure of 48.9 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than August's figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or 'increasing' territory), registering 61.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 63.7 percent reported in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.2 percent, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 44.7 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 45.3 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from August's figure of 43.8 percent. ISM Mfg 49.1, Exp. 49.0, Last 48.7 Prices Paid 61.9, Exp. 62.7, Last 63.7 New Orders 48.9, Exp. 50.0, Last 51.4 Employment 45.3, Exp. 44.3, Last 43.8

    The Relentless Rise in Gold Prices

    From robinjbrooks.substack.com|Oct 1, 2025

    There’s endless speculation about the relentless rise in gold prices. There’s talk that this is foreign central banks who are buying gold to diversify out of the Dollar. Then ...

    Supreme Court refuses to let Trump immediately oust Fed's Cook

    From @NourHammoury|Oct 1, 2025|88 comments

    *SUPREME COURT REFUSES TO LET TRUMP IMMEDIATELY OUST FED'S COOK baaaam The US Supreme Court is to hear arguments over Trump's bid to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Supreme Court allows the Fed's Lisa Cook to stay in office for now as Trump pushes to fire her The Supreme Court on Wednesday deferred action on whether President Donald Trump can immediately fire Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook, instead agreeing to hear oral arguments in the case early next year. The move means that Cook can remain in office while the consequential legal question is decided. The court will hear oral arguments in January, the brief order said, with a ruling likely before the end of June. Trump had asked the court to allow him to immediately fire Cook while litigation continued in lower courts. Under the Federal Reserve Act, presidents are restricted from removing governors unless it is “for cause,” meaning there is evidence of wrongdoing. Trump has said he fired Cook for cause, over allegations of mortgage fraud made by one of his political appointees, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte. Cook has denied the allegations, and bank documents obtained by NBC News appear to contradict the fraud claim. Since taking office in January, Trump has pushed for lower interest rates and had criticized the Fed for failing to act on his wishes. While the president's aggressive use of executive power has often led to setbacks in lower courts, the Supreme Court has regularly granted the administration's emergency requests that allow his policies to move forward.

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