On Friday, 26 September 2025 at 13:30 UK time, the BEA releases the August personal income and outlays report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the cleanest read on consumer momentum. Our base case is Core PCE +0.2% m/m, Personal Income +0.3% m/m, and Personal Spending +0.6% m/m. This view reflects the August CPI–to–PCE translation (lighter shelter weight in PCE, mixed airfare/medical dynamics), the drag from weaker PPI trade margins on goods prices, steady but unspectacular labor-income growth, and firm nominal spending signals from retail sales/control. The aim here is to frame where consensus may be leaning ... (full story)