The Fed cut rates by 25bps this week, lowering the target range to 4–4.25 percent. The statement marked a pivot from July. Then the Fed described labour market conditions as “solid.” Now it concedes that job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged up, and inflation has “moved up and remains somewhat elevated.” The new projections underline the shift. For 2025, GDP growth is now 1.6 percent versus 1.4 in June, PCE inflation 3.0 unchanged, core PCE 3.1 unchanged, and unemployment 4.5 unchanged. For 2026, growth is 1.8 percent versus 1.6, PCE inflation 2.6 versus 2.4, core 2.6 versus 2.4, and unemployment 4.4 versus ... (full story)