Wednesday will see the Fed deliver an interest rate cut, most likely 25bp. It's fully priced. So, material market impact would have to come from either a surprise 50bp cut, or commentary from Chair Powell that swings dramatically in either a decidedly hawkish or dovish direction. A 25bp cut gives room for a somewhat dovish leaning, while a 50bp cut would allow Chair Powell to be as hawkish as he likes, as the move itself would dominate aggregate impact. Until or unless we get to an inflation hiccup of significance, the prognosis for the front end is pretty straightforward, as it will remain slavish to the trend lower ... (full story)