U.S. consumers take center stage on Tuesday, 16 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when the Census Bureau releases the August US Retail Sales report. After July’s solid +0.5% MoM, the street is looking for a slower +0.3%, while our base case is a slightly firmer +0.4%. The mix matters as much as the headline: higher gasoline prices should lift nominal receipts at the pump, non-store/e-commerce remains resilient into back-to-school, and autos may give back a touch after July’s pop. With the Fed meeting looming, this print will help shape the narrative around the durability of goods demand following a mixed inflation tableau ... (full story)