Prior was 58.2 • Current conditions 61.2 vs 61.3 expected (prior 61.7) • Expectations 51.8 vs 54.9 expected (prior 55.9) • 1-year inflation 4.8% vs 4.8% prior • 5-year inflation 3.9% vs 3.5% prior The University of Michigan survey was once the gold-standard in confidence surveys but it's been slowly eroded by the politicization of everything and it's more signal than noise at this point. The Fed still watches it and a jump in inflation expectations post-covid caused a bit of a panic at the Fed and a late-signalled jump rate hike but it was later revised away in a bit of an embarrassing moment for policymakers. I'd ... (full story)

Consumer sentiment fell 4.8% to 55.4 in early September, according to preliminary results from the University of Mighican Survey of Consumers. This represents a 21% decline year over year. “Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September,” according to Survey of Consumer director Joanna Hsu. “This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers. Buying conditions for durables improved, while all other index components fell. Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor ... (full story)