We’ve spent nearly two decades on this blog exploring the economic outlook, and history shows that this is especially relevant for active bond managers. Currently, risk markets are priced for a benign economic scenario. Credit spreads are historically tight, equity valuations are elevated, and interest rates are on a downward path as central banks unwind tight monetary policies to keep growth on track. The global economy appears healthy, and markets seem to have rediscovered their appetite for risk. But as always, we believe it’s worthwhile to explore alternative diagnoses. Just as one might consult a doctor for a ... (full story)