An Extremely Rare Signal Just Triggered on Copper

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations ticked up at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Unemployment and job loss expectations worsened. Job finding expectations declined to a series low. Spending and household income growth expectations remained broadly unchanged. The survey was fielded from August 1 through August 31, 2025. The main findings from the August 2025 survey are: Inflation • Median inflation expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in August. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3.0%) and five-year-ahead (2.9%) horizons. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year- and three-year-ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon. NY Fed consumer expectations survey 1Yr Inflation3.2%, Last 3.1% 3Yr Inflation 3.0%, Unchanged 5Yr Inflation 2.9%, Unchanged NY FED: IN AUGUST, PUBLIC SAW GREATER CHANCE OF LOSING JOB NY Fed consumer survey for August: "The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 pp to 44.9%, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013."